| 引用本文： |
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金信飞,朱骏侠,闫吉顺,刘红丹,岳羲和,王鹏,高瑜.近 20 年以来我国主要海洋产业发展现状与评价[J].海洋开发与管理,2025,42(10):59-68
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| 摘要: |
| 研究基于 2005—2024 年《中国海洋经济统计公报》等数据，采用多元线性回归与可持续发展指数（SDI）模型，从经济、资源和环境三个维度剖析我国主要海洋产业的发展特征与效益。研究表明，近 20 年我国海洋产业增加值从 7 202 亿元增至 43 733 亿元（年均增速 9.4％），三次产业结构由 17.0∶31.0∶52.0 优化为 4.7∶35.8∶59.5，呈现“高速增长—结构调整—韧性恢复” 的阶段性特征。累计新增用海面积 457.3 万 hm2，单位用海效率提升至 1 662.85 亿元 / 万 hm2， 海洋优良水质面积增长 31.2％。多元线性回归结果显示，海洋优良水质面积对产业增加值呈显著正向影响（β=0.819 7，P ＜ 0.05），而新增用海面积影响未达显著水平。SDI 指数从 0.30 升至 0.59， 2015 年后在政策驱动下资源效率与生态质量实现协同改善。研究建议推进产业绿色转型、强化用海效率管控、构建生态价值转化机制，以实现海洋产业高质量可持续发展。 |
| 关键词: 海洋产业 产业经济 效益评估 可持续发展指数 多元线性回归 |
| DOI：10.20016/j.cnki.hykfygl.2025.10.005 |
| 投稿时间：2025-03-01修订日期：2025-09-23 |
| 基金项目:浙江省“尖兵领雁 +X”科技计划项目 (2025C02016)；2024 年部省合作项目节约集约高效用海关键技术研究（2024ZRBSHZ146）. |
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| Development Status and Evaluation of China’s Main Marine Industries Over the Past Two Decades |
| JIN Xinfei,ZHU Junxia,YAN Jishun,LIU Hongdan,YUE Xihe,WANG Peng,GAO Yu |
| Ningbo Shengyong Ocean Technology Co.，Ltd.;Ningbo Society of Ocean and Fishery;Marine Academy of Zhejiang Province;Key Laboratory of Ocean Space Resource Management Technology，MNR;National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center |
| Abstract: |
| This study，based on data from the China Marine Economic Statistical Bulletin（2005-2024）and other sources，employs multiple linear regression and the Sustainable Development Index（SDI）model to analyze the development characteristics and benefits of China’s major marine industries from the three dimensions of economy，resources，and environment．The research shows that: over the past 20 years，industrial added value has increased from 720.2 billion yuan to 4 373.3 billion yuan（with an average annual growth rate of 9.4％），and the tertiary industry structure has optimized from 17.0∶31.0∶52.0 to 4.7∶35.8∶59.5，demonstrating phased characteristics of“high-speed growth-structural adjustment-resilience recovery”．The cumulative newly added sea use area is 4.573 million hectares，the efficiency of unit sea use has increased to 166.285 billion yuan/million hectares，and the area of excellent marine water quality has increased by 31.2％．The results of multiple linear regression show that the area of excellent marine water quality has a significant positive impact on industrial added value（β=0.819 7，P ＜ 0.05），while the impact of the newly added sea use area is not significant．The SDI index has increased from 0.30 to 0.59，and under the policy-driven effect after 2015，the resource efficiency and ecological quality have achieved coordinated improvement．The study proposes to promote the green transformation of industries，strengthen the control of sea use efficiency，and construct an ecological value conversion mechanism to achieve the high-quality and sustainable development of marine industries. |
| Key words: Marine industry,Industrial economy,Benefit assessment,Sustainable Development Index（SDI）, Multiple linear regression |
