| 摘要: |
| 低碳发展背景下，提升海洋渔业生态效率是实现产业可持续发展的核心路径。基于中国沿 海 11 个省（自治区、直辖市）2010—2022 年面板数据，构建包含碳排放、环境污染等非期望产出的 Super-SBM 评价模型，测算海洋渔业生态效率，结合核密度估计、空间可视化等方法分析其时空演变特征，并通过 PVAR 模型及方差分解揭示关键影响因素。结果表明：2010—2022 年海洋渔业生态效率值介于 0.370 ～ 1.300 之间，总体呈现“快速提升—小幅回落—基本稳定”三阶
段特征，2016 年后稳定在 0.933 ～ 0.949 的高位水平。区域差异显著：北部海洋经济圈 2010—
2014 年快速上升后呈平稳波动，东部持续高位稳定且小幅增长，南部波动上升但内部省份异质性明显。空间格局从集中走向均衡， 区域差异整体收敛， 标准差和变异系数较 2010 年分别下降24.1％、31.6％。影响因素中，规模效应为核心驱动，第 1 ～ 5 期贡献度从 0.658 升至 0.860；技术效应初期贡献微弱， 长期稳步增长至 0.128；结构效应贡献较弱且呈波动性，仍有优化空间。研究结果为制定差异化海洋渔业低碳发展与生态效率提升政策提供科学依据。 |
| 关键词: 沿海地区 PVAR 模型 海洋渔业生态效率 影响因素 |
| DOI：10.20016/j.cnki.hykfygl.2025.10.009 |
| 投稿时间：2025-03-17修订日期：2025-08-27 |
| 基金项目:辽宁省社会科学规划基金“乡村振兴背景下我省海洋渔业经济供给侧结构性改革驱动机制研究”（L19BJ006）. |
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| Marine Fishery Eco-Efficiency Evaluation and Influencing Factors Analysis for Low-Carbon Development |
| SU Zixiao,DI Qianbin,CHEN Xiaolong |
| School of Geography，Liaoning Normal University;Institute of Marine Sustainable Development，Liaoning Normal University;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research，CAS |
| Abstract: |
| Against the backdrop of low-carbon development，improving marine fishery eco-efficiency constitutes a core pathway for achieving sustainable industrial development．Based on panel data from 11 coastal provinces
（autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government）of China during 2010—2022，this study constructed a Super-SBM evaluation model incorporating undesirable outputs such as carbon emissions and environmental pollution to measure marine fishery eco-efficiency．Combined with methods including kernel density estimation and spatial visualization，the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics were analyzed，and the key influencing factors were revealed through the Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model and variance decomposition．The results indicate that the marine fishery eco-efficiency values ranged from 0.370 to 1.300 during 2010—2022，showing an overall three-stage characteristic of“rapid improvement-slight decline-basic stability”and stabilizing at a high level of 0.933 ～ 0.949 after 2016．Significant regional differences were observed：the Northern Marine Economic Circle experienced rapid growth followed by stable fluctuations after 2010—2014；the Eastern Marine Economic Circle maintained a consistently high and stable level with slight growth；the Southern Marine Economic Circle showed fluctuating growth but with significant heterogeneity among internal provinces．The spatial pattern evolved from concentration to equilibrium，with overall convergence of regional differences，the standard deviation and coefficient of variation decreased by 24.1％ and 31.6％ respectively，compared with 2010. Among the influencing factors，the scale effect served as the core driver，with its contribution degree increasing from 0.658 to 0.860 from the 1st to the 5th period；the technical effect had a weak initial contribution but exhibited steady long-term growth to 0.128；The structural effect had a weak and fluctuating contribution with remaining room for optimization．The research findings provide a scientific basis for formulating differentiated policies to promote low- carbon development and enhance eco-efficiency in marine fisheries. |
| Key words: Coastal areas,PVAR model,Marine fishery ecological efficiency,Influencing factor |
