| 摘要: |
| 基于 2012—2023 年中国沿海 11 个地区的海洋环境陆源污染面板数据，采用固定效应模 型、门槛回归模型和中介效应模型研究强制性环境规制对海洋环境陆源污染的影响。研究发现：
（1）强制性环境规制与海洋环境陆源污染之间存在倒“U”型关系，当环境规制达到一定强度后可以持续降低海洋环境陆源污染；（2）门槛效应回归检验表明，强制性环境规制对海洋环境陆源污染治理的负向影响存在单门槛效应；（3）机制检验发现，绿色技术创新和产业结构在强制性环境规制与陆源污染治理之间发挥了中介作用，即强制性环境规制可以通过激发企业进行绿色技术 创新和产业结构升级降低海洋环境陆源污染。为提高我国海洋环境陆源污染治理水平，应构建跨 区域协同治理机制，分阶段优化环境规制强度，促使企业进行绿色技术创新和产业结构调整以平 衡环境治理与经济发展的双重目标，为陆源污染治理提供科学依据。 |
| 关键词: 环境规制 陆源污染 海洋环境保护 协同治理 |
| DOI：10.20016/j.cnki.hykfygl.2026.02.011 |
| 投稿时间：2025-11-03修订日期：2026-01-21 |
| 基金项目:国家现代农业产业技术体系专项资金（CARS-48）． |
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| The Nonlinear Impact and Mechanisms of Mandatory Environmental Regulation on Land-Based Marine Pollution |
| XU Ju,YANG Chunyan |
| School of Economics and Management，Shanghai Ocean University |
| Abstract: |
| Based on the panel data of land-based pollution of the marine environment in 11 provinces along the coast of China from 2012 to 2023，the impact of mandatory environmental regulation on land-based pollution of the marine environment is investigated by using fixed-effects，threshold regression，and mediated-effects models． It is found that：（1）There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between mandatory environmental regulation and marine land-based pollution，and when environmental regulation reaches a certain intensity，it can continue to reduce the land-based pollution of the marine environment；（2）The regression test of threshold effect shows that there is a single-threshold effect in the negative impact of mandatory environmental regulation on the management of land-based pollution of the marine environment；（3）The mechanism test shows that green technological innovation and industrial structure play a mediating role between mandatory environmental regulation and land- based pollution management，that is，mandatory environmental regulation can reduce land-based pollution in the marine environment by stimulating enterprises to carry out green technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading. In order to improve the management of land-based pollution in China’s marine environment，a cross- regional collaborative management mechanism should be constructed to optimize the intensity of environmental regulation in phases，to promote enterprises to carry out green technological innovation and industrial structure adjustment to balance the dual objectives of environmental management and economic development，and to provide a scientific basis for the management of land-based pollution. |
| Key words: Environmental regulation Land-based pollution Marine environmental protection Synergistic governance |
