| 摘要: |
| 近年来，中国与东盟国家持续推进海洋领域合作。伴随海洋经济合作的不断深化，双方蓝 色经济一体化正加速从愿景迈向现实，有望成为区域发展的新动能。文章基于 2011—2023 年的国别面板数据， 以《中国—东盟战略伙伴关系 2030 年愿景》的签署作为准自然实验， 运用双重差分法评估中国—东盟海洋合作对中国与东盟国家间水产品贸易的政策效应及其作用机制。实 证结果表明：中国—东盟海洋合作显著促进了双边水产品贸易。该合作主要通过提升中国与东盟 国家的数字经济发展水平与促进物流体系高质量发展，驱动双边贸易增长。异质性检验发现，中 国—东盟海洋合作不仅对中国向东盟出口水产品的促进效应强于对进口的促进效应，还对中低收 入和非海岛国家产生了更强的贸易促进效应。据此，提出深化蓝色经济伙伴关系、加强数字与物 流“双链”协同、实施差异化合作策略和推动产业链深度融合等建议，为评估区域性海洋合作的 贸易效应提供了经验证据，并为优化“蓝色经济伙伴关系”的实践路径提供了政策启示。 |
| 关键词: 中国—东盟 海洋合作 水产品贸易 双重差分法 |
| DOI：10.20016/j.cnki.hykfygl.2026.02.008 |
| 投稿时间：2025-11-19修订日期：2026-02-06 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Research on the Impact of China-ASEAN Maritime Cooperation on Bilateral Aquatic Product Trade |
| CHEN Yanling,CHEN Dongmei,QIN Tianni,ZHANG Jianzhong |
| School of Internet Economics and Business，Fujian University of Technology;Research Center for the integrated Development of Marine Culture and Technology， Fujian Provincial Social Science Research Base |
| Abstract: |
| In recent years，China and ASEAN countries have deepened their maritime cooperation．With the continuous deepening of maritime economic collaboration，the integration of the blue economy between the two sides is accelerating from vision to reality，emerging as a new engine for regional development．Utilizing country-level panel data from 2011 to 2023 and taking the signing of the China-ASEAN Strategic Partnership Vision 2030 as a quasi- natural experiment，this study applies a difference-in-differences（DID）approach to evaluate the policy effect of China-ASEAN maritime cooperation on aquatic product trade and to explore its underlying mechanisms．The empirical results show that China-ASEAN maritime cooperation has significantly promoted bilateral trade in aquatic products． The cooperation primarily drives trade growth by enhancing digital economy development and promoting high- quality logistics systems in China and ASEAN countries．The heterogeneity analysis further indicates that China- ASEAN maritime cooperation not only exerts a stronger effect on China’s exports of aquatic products to ASEAN than on imports，but also generates a more substantial trade promotion effect for low-and middle-income and non-island countries．Based on these findings，this paper proposes recommendations including deepening the blue economy partnership，strengthening synergy“dual chains”between the digital and logistics，implementing differentiated cooperation strategies，and promoting deeper integration of industrial chains．This study provides empirical evidence for assessing the trade effects of regional maritime cooperation and offers policy implications for optimizing the practical pathways of the“Blue Economy Partnership”. |
| Key words: China-ASEAN Maritime cooperation Aquatic product trade Difference-in-Differences（DID）国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国—东盟海洋经济合作多维壁垒解构及突破策略研究”（23BJY017） 福建理工大学人才建设基金 “中国—东盟海洋合作”（S90032500121）． |
